Bold statement: The price you pay for energy right now could hinge on a regional conflict—and your best move is to act quickly to lock in a cheaper rate. And this is the part most people miss: market volatility from the Middle East crisis can push up the Energy Price Cap, but there are practical steps you can take today to shield yourself.
Overview
- The wholesale gas price, which is what energy suppliers pay to source gas, is rising due to the ongoing Middle East conflict. This upward pressure is a major factor behind UK electricity prices. If the spike lasts, the Energy Price Cap could increase from July.
- Martin Lewis, founder of MoneySavingExpert (MSE), urges anyone who can disconnect from the Price Cap to do so promptly to save money and reduce exposure to further price rises.
What to consider right now
- Some low-cost options from before the latest changes are still available, meaning you can lock in a rate roughly 14% cheaper than the current Price Cap. This not only saves money but also reduces uncertainty about future price movements. You can compare across the market via Cheap Energy Club.
- However, many suppliers are re-evaluating their fixed-price deals today and could reprice them higher. There’s a real risk that the cheapest offers may disappear by tomorrow.
- If you fix now, there’s an unusual wrinkle: from 1 April, the rate you lock in could be reduced due to government changes moving some policy costs to general taxation. In practical terms, even fixed rates could become cheaper for typical usage on 1 April, by about 7% to 9%.
- Fixed deals are widely available for most payment methods, except prepayment. For smart prepay customers, the EDF Simply Tracker tariff provides a Price Cap-like rate with lower standing charges and extra cashback.
How to tell if you’re on the Price Cap
- The Price Cap applies to a supplier’s Standard Variable Tariff—the default if you haven’t chosen a deal or if your fixed term has ended and you did nothing. If you’re on a fixed tariff, EV or time-of-use tariff, you’re not on the Price Cap.
What about supplier insolvency?
- There’s always some risk a supplier could fail, but if that happens, your credit is protected and you’re moved to another supplier. The worst-case scenario is returning to the Price Cap. Meanwhile, the cheapest fixed deals remain cheaper than the Price Cap, so you would have saved money.
Martin Lewis’s update and guidance
- As deals shift rapidly, the key message remains: focus on securing a cheap fixed rate rather than any fixed rate. When comparing, ensure the new deal is materially cheaper from day one compared with the Price Cap.
- In a fast-changing environment, a risk-averse choice is to fix now. If the market stabilizes, there’s a possibility that fixes could become cheaper, and waiting might not backfire. The exact outcome depends on how the Middle East situation evolves.
- Overall, pursuing a cheaper fixed option for safety seems sensible now, even if hindsight might show a cheaper path later.
Context and related readings
- This guidance follows the broader market updates and policy changes announced in late February and early March 2026. For ongoing developments, monitor official MSE updates and market comparisons.
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